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Report: Somalia Tops 2008 List of Unstable Nations

"Somalia ranks as the country most at risk for failure, according to an annual index that ranks nations in order of their likelihood of collapse.

The past two years, Sudan has held the dubious first place position in the Fund for Peace's Failed States Index. But Sudan is now second to Somalia, which is called the least stable nation in the world.

Iraq, which ranked second in 2007, improved to fifth in 2008, primarily as a result of the surge, according to the index's authors. In contrast, Iran jumped from 57 to 49 over the past year. Zimbabwe and Chad filled out the top five most unstable nations.

Israel grew more unstable between 2007 and 2008, dropping from a position of 75 to 58 in the list of 177 nations. It is the first time Israel ranked in the list of the world's 60 most vulnerable states.

Twelve social, economic, political and military indicators determine how the states are ranked in the list, which is used to develop early warning and performance measures aimed at preventing conflict.

The indicators include: mounting demographic pressures; movement of refugees or internally displaced persons; legacy of vengeance-seeking groups; chronic and sustained human flight; uneven economic development and sharp economic decline; the criminalization and/or delegitimization of the state; deterioration of public services; suspension or arbitrary application of the rule of law and widespread violation of human rights; a security apparatus that operates as a state within a state; rise of factionalized elites; and intervention of other states or external political actors.

The report is a "guide to understand factors that contribute to state failure," Fund for Peace spokesman Mark Loucas told FOXNews.com. It is designed to "stir dialogue and call attention to these pressures (and used) as a tool to promote dialogue between civil society members and journalists in ... the countries with the highest risk."

According to this list, Israel's stability dropped as a result of the increase in all 12 indicators, with the most severe threat being from vengeance-seeking groups. Despite its drop, Israel is not yet at an "alert" stage, the lowest of a four-measure ranking of instability. Iraq is still in the "alert" stage despite its moving up the list.

Only 15 states ranked as "sustainable" — or with the greatest degree of stability. They were Norway, at the top, followed by Finland, Sweden, Ireland, Switzerland, Iceland, New Zealand, Denmark, Australia, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium and Japan.

The United States and United Kingdom ranked second with "moderate" status, a stability level they've held since 2006. Neither was included in the 2005 survey.

The Fund for Peace is a research and educational organization whose mission is to prevent war and alleviate the conditions that cause war. The 2008 index is the fourth annual report released by the organization."
[Fox News, 23-6-08]

Click here to read the Failed States Index for 2008.

Tornado, Summer 2008

[photo: AP Photo/Lori Mehmen]

Europa und USA bekämpfen Brasiliens Ethanol-Produktion

"Brasiliens Biosprit könnte weltweit nicht nur Teil der Lösung für allfällige Klimaprobleme sein – sollten diese tatsächlich so gravierend und sollte die Reduktion von Treibhausgasen der geeignete Lösungsweg sein –, sondern auch das Problem der steigenden Lebensmittelpreise mildern helfen. Würden Länder wie die USA oder jene Europas etwa auf Bioethanol aus Brasilien zurückgreifen, flössen die bisher anderswo für die Herstellung von Biotreibstoffen verwendeten Getreidemengen wieder auf den Nahrungsmittelmarkt und könnten zu einer Entspannung der Preise beitragen. Doch sowohl die Europäische Union als auch die USA haben längst hohe Handelsbarrieren aufgebaut.

Brasilianisches Ethanol wird beim Importieren in die USA mit einem Zoll von $ 0.54 pro Gallone bzw. $ 0.15 pro Liter belegt. Die EU fordert umgerechnet $ 0.19 pro Liter. Zudem wird in den USA und in Europa die eigene Produktion von Agrarkraftstoffen von den Regierungen stark gefördert. Etwa 3,7 Mrd. € haben die Regierungen der EU-Länder im Jahr 2006 als Subventionen für Biotreibstoffe ausgegeben, schätzt die in Genf ansässige Global Subsidies Initiative (GSI) des International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). Umgerechnet wird damit jeder in der EU produzierte Liter Bioethanol mit € 0.74 subventioniert. (...)

Die so errichteten Handelsbarrieren haben zu der absurden Situation geführt, dass in den USA nun mehr Ethanol produziert wird als in Brasilien, und das, obwohl das Mais-Ethanol der USA viel teuer ist, eine viel schlechtere Umweltbilanz aufweist und in Ermangelung von Landreserven in direkter Konkurrenz mit dem Anbau von Mais als Nahrungsmittel steht. Angesichts der mächtigen Ethanol- bzw. Mais-Lobby in den USA und in der EU wirkt es mitunter heuchlerisch, wenn Brasiliens Ethanol aus umwelttechnischen oder sozialen Gründen in die Kritik gerät, zumal Brasiliens Zucker – der aus der gleichen Pflanze, nämlich Zuckerrohr, gewonnen wird wie Ethanol – von eben diesen Kritikern seit Jahrzehnten ohne diese Bedenken konsumiert wird. Denn auf der «Zuckerseite» funktionieren die internationalen Märkte: Brasilien ist mit einem Marktanteil von 60% der weltweit grösste Zucker-Exporteur."

[source: Neue Zürcher Zeitung]

Op-Ed: Know Thine Enemy

Die USA sind nicht gleich USA. So ein kleiner Film wie der hier zitierte wäre jedenfalls auf der Website einer deutschen Tageszeitung nicht möglich. Zu antiamerikanisch. US-Bürger oder -Journalisten haben offenbar weniger Bedenken, eine abweichende Meinung zu publizieren. Und sie können sie publizieren.

[more: here]

Shifting Targets

In an article about the US and its shifting targets versus Iran Seymour M. Hersh, normally very well informed, wrote last week in The New Yorker:

In a series of public statements in recent months, President Bush and members of his Administration have redefined the war in Iraq, to an increasing degree, as a strategic battle between the United States and Iran. “Shia extremists, backed by Iran, are training Iraqis to carry out attacks on our forces and the Iraqi people,” Bush told the national convention of the American Legion in August. “The attacks on our bases and our troops by Iranian-supplied munitions have increased. . . . The Iranian regime must halt these actions. And, until it does, I will take actions necessary to protect our troops.” He then concluded, to applause, “I have authorized our military commanders in Iraq to confront Tehran’s murderous activities.”

The President’s position, and its corollary—that, if many of America’s problems in Iraq are the responsibility of Tehran, then the solution to them is to confront the Iranians—have taken firm hold in the Administration. This summer, the White House, pushed by the office of Vice-President Dick Cheney, requested that the Joint Chiefs of Staff redraw long-standing plans for a possible attack on Iran, according to former officials and government consultants. The focus of the plans had been a broad bombing attack, with targets including Iran’s known and suspected nuclear facilities and other military and infrastructure sites. Now the emphasis is on “surgical” strikes on Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Tehran and elsewhere, which, the Administration claims, have been the source of attacks on Americans in Iraq. What had been presented primarily as a counter-proliferation mission has been reconceived as counterterrorism."

[more: here]

With Whom Is She Talking?

Busy statesmen in Heiligendamm, and a German chancellor:

[UPDATE] The New York Times reports results: "The United States agreed today to “seriously consider” a European proposal to combat global warming by halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, breaking a trans-Atlantic deadlock at a meeting here of the world’s richest industrial nations.

The compromise, hammered out in tough negotiations between the United States and Germany, also endorses President Bush’s recent proposal to gather together the world’s largest emitting countries, including China and India, to set a series of national goals for reducing emissions.

The agreement does not include a mandatory 50 percent reduction in emissions, a key provision sought by Chancellor Angela Merkel. Nevertheless, Mrs. Merkel, the host of the meeting, proclaimed it a “huge success.”

After days of discord between Europe and the United States, which had threatened to veto any reference to concrete reductions, the deal amounted to a face-saving compromise for Mrs. Merkel."

[source: here]

Feeling Warmth, Subtropical Plants Move North

[source: here]

Globalisierung, chinesisch

Lieblingslektüre, heute: "Durch das schnelle Wachstum hat China bereits im Jahr 2004 die USA als weltgrößter Exporteur von Informations- und Kommunikationsprodukten abgelöst. In steigendem Ausmaß, so stellt die OECD fest, entwickeln chinesische Firmen aber ihr Know-how und ihre Produktionskapazitäten für Produkte und Dienstleistungen mit höherer Wertschöpfung und investieren im Ausland mit dem Ziel, technische Kenntnisse, Markennamen und Vertriebskanäle zu erwerben. Allerdings müssten chinesische Unternehmen ihre Informations- und Kommunikationsaktivitäten noch besser in den Wertschöpfungsprozeß integrieren." (Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 5. 10. 2006)